Partial lifting of COVID 19 Lockdown in Rajasthan - Economy, Productivity, Science and People

In Rajasthan except for eight districts - Jalor, Sirohi, Rajsamand, Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Bundi, Baran, and Chittorgarh, every district has reported a corona virus infection case. Jaipur leads the tally with 170 cases, Jodhpur and Jhunjhunu, having 34 and 32 cases, Bhilwara and Tonk 28 and 27 cases, Kota and Banswara 17 and 12 cases, Jaisalmer 19 cases, and there are 42 Iran evacuees who are being treated. The other districts have single digit reported cases. As on 13th April the total number of cases in Rajasthan is 700. The numbers are increasing everyday, with Jaipur becoming a hotspot of the cases. Rajasthan has also successfully dealt with epidemic spread in Bhilwara district, which is now famously touted as Bhilwara model. Goldman Sachs estimated the growth rate of GDP at 1.6% declining by 400 basis points because of lockdown of 21 days. In case of a quick retraction of COVID-19 pandemic across the globe by Mid May, KPMG India estimated India's GDP growth in the range of 5.3 per cent to 5.7 per cent. In a second scenario where India controls the virus spread but there's significant global recession, the growth may be in between 4 per cent to 4.5 per cent. KPMG India in its report estimated India's GDP growth rate falling below 3% if the virus spreads further in India and lockdown sees an extension. Motilal Oswal Research suggests that a single day of complete lockdown could shave off 14-19 basis points from annual growth. Barclays said the cumulative shutdown cost will be around $120 billion, or 4 per cent of GDP. Mr. Yashwant Sinha, for Finance Minister of India, estimated the cost of 21-day countrywide lockdown at 1 percentage point of GDP. The global recession and uncertainties of future would make a 2 percentage points decline in growth rate(for 2020-21) possible. If we look at the district's tally we find that most of the districts left out are smaller districts and they share their boundaries with affected districts and other states. Jalor and Sirohi share their border with Gujarat, and Ganganagar and Hanumangarh share their border with Punjab and Haryana. The probability of finding more cases in these districts is also very high, if intensive testing is done. The state government has ordered a state level survey to do wide testing in the state. The big question of whether to lift the lockdown or not is closely related to the economic activity, because the argument given by those who favour lifting of the lockdown, argue that the productivity loss will bring bigger problems for the poor and the vulnerable. Advance estimate of state gross domestic product (SGDP) is Rs, 711627 crores at constant prices. If we look at the breakdown of Gross State Value Added across various sectors - it is 25.19% agriculture, 30.67% Industries, and 44.14% services, as per the advance estimate figures of 2019-20. Agriculture Doing an analysis sector by sector, in Agriculture, as per Economic Review the advance estimates of Rabi crop are as follows - Production in lakh tonnes Cereals Pulses Oilseeds Sugarcane Cotton 133.19 27.44 65.79 2.5 26.63 lakh bales If we see the district wise concentration of these crops, it is as follows - Wheat Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Jhunjhunu Barley Ganganagar, Jaipur, Hanumangarh Millets Jalore Sirohi, Kota, Dungarpur Gram Bikaner, Churu, Kota, Dungarour Masoor Bundi, Pratapgarh Matar Jaipur, Sikar Cotton  Ganganagar Sunflower Sugarcane  Ganganagar Tarameera Nagaur, Jaipur, Dausa Rape and Muster Tonk, Alwar, Baran Linseed Nagaur, Pratapgarh, Kota Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Jalore and Sirohi have not reported any cases. The probability of having cases in the rural areas is lower, thus the lockdown should be lifted in these areas to ease out the harvesting of the crops. Jaipur is the hotspot of corona virus spread, but most of the cases have been found in the city, in a particular area, Ramganj. While Ramganj should be completely locked, government can think of having partial lockdown in the rural areas of Jaipur, with a strict ban on moving outside the district, and entering inside the city. Jaipur City should be sealed.             Same strategy can be followed in the other districts. Surveilance for the rural spread of the cases can be done and in 4-5 days time, partial lockdown can be lifted in Kota Bikaner and Dungarpur districts. Inter-district movement will have to be restricted. Tonk is close to Jaipur, and is a small district. Tonk has also become a hotspot. Tonk should be kept under lockdown, for the next two weeks, as probability of virus spreading in rural areas is higher in Tonk. For the other districts, where the number of cases is less, the areas where the cases have been reported are to kept under complete lockdown, for two more weeks and partial lockdown can be lifted in the other areas. Government will have to assist in the marketing of agricultural commodities after two weeks, and preparations should be made for the same. Industry Industrial Production in Rajasthan is concentrated to a few districts. Industrial production in Rajasthan is largely divided into three parts, Manufacturing, Mining and Energy. The Gross Value Add of manufacturing sector in Rajasthan is about Rs. 94,419 crore in 2019-20 at current prices accounting for 9.82% of contribution to the total GSVA of the state. Mining contributes 6.62%. There are Industrial hubs in Rajasthan where the large scale industry is located. Textile industry in Bhilwara, Energy in Barmer, Automobile and Auto Components in Bhiwadi and Neemrana, Mining in Udaipur and Khetari, and Cement industry in some parts of Rajasthan. Large scale industrial houses should come forward to collaborate with the state government to do a surveillance of labour and other workers in the plant. The industrial houses should bear the cost of tests, and the lockdown should be lifted from plant to plant. In the Veneto region of Italy, as per Newyork Times, ‘Having the right antibodies to the virus in one’s blood — a potential marker of immunity — may soon determine who gets to work and who does not, who is locked down and who is free.’ The conservative president of the northeastern Veneto region has proposed a special “license” for Italians who possess antibodies that show they have had, and beaten, the virus. The former Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, a liberal, has spoken about a “Covid Pass” for the uninfected. Rajeev Gandhi Center for Bio-Technology, has also developed prototypes of low-cost rapid test kits that are ready for industrial production. There are two kinds of kits. The first type is to identify the possibilities of infection in a patient. The second type will detect the antigens produced by human body on intrusion of this virus. Prof. Radhakrishna Pillai of RGCB said, ‘We have a dedicated R&D team that has developed this kit. This is hardly the size of a pregnancy testing kit. This is also very cost-efficient. Once we begin the mass production, we can get one kit at approximately Rs 350 to Rs 500. This will also enable us to increase the rate of testing and further streamline the list of suspected patients.’ ICMR has approved the use of rapid testing kits although WHO had issued a guidance that the kits should be used only for research purposes. Along with testing further preventive measures can be taken by the production houses. The labour and other workers should not be allowed to move out of the factory premises. Counselling and awareness campaigns should be organised for the workers sensitizing them on personal hygiene. Social distancing measures should also be taken with-in the factory premises. The dairy industry in the state has been functioning likewise. If this proposition works, we can find a way to send the industrial workers back to work. Production house owners will not be hesitant to get these tests carried out because the cost of testing would be less than the cost of loss of productivity. Starting with large scale industries, gradually MSMEs can also adopt this method. Services The contribution of services is maximum in the state. The service sector comprising of trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communication, Financial services, real estate, ownership of dwellings, professional services, public administration, and other services. Some of these like banking, telecoms, storage and electricity fall under the essential services and they are functioning during the lockdown also. Hotels and restaurants should not be opened. Schools and colleges should also remain closed. Malls are air-conditioned spaces and they should also remain closed. Public transport should not be re-started for two more weeks at least. Service sector has been functional in some areas because it is possible for the service sector to effectively use work from home facility. Limited transport of essential items within the districts could be allowed. Highways and roads need special attention. Clean toilets and cleanliness of food joints on roads is to be ensured. Some selected food joints on roads could be opened under the police surveillance. Safe water should also be made available at these joints. Public Administration  should function through work from home. Overall, partial lifting of lockdown from the rural areas, opening of production houses under surveillance and preventive measures and limited opening up of services sector could be an effective partial lockdown strategy for the state. Finally it will be the intelligence of people which will make the partial lockdown startegy successful.