'Goodbuy' 2022 !

 December is a month of reflections. 2022 was an unusual year, which forced us to reflect many times during the year, and will force us to reflect for many years to come; about the futility of wars, the irrelevance of some of the things we chase, the utility of the structures created for the modern world to function - political, economic, social and organizational, the essentials that make life beautiful and happy, the chaos - both internal and external, the life itself - transient, infinite, squared, fluid........

What happened in 2022 will shape the way we live in future. I see both the possibilities; of a life that could be the most beautiful that a human can create OR of a prolonged misery arising out of destruction that a human does. 

2022 also made the world realize, for one more time, the simplistic, cliched maxim -  there is enough for everyone's need, but not enough for anyone's greed. All the economic and political philosophies driven by greed, lead to destruction. One of my students, who works for a big multinational medical equipment supplier, met me recently, who came to Jaipur to establish a neuro-surgical facility, told me - 'I am paid to be greedy.' The discussion was about rising healthcare technology costs, reducing shelf lives of the equipment, and a large amount of taxpayers money or social cost booked in it. What he could easily do for fifteen lacs, he is trained to ask thirty lacs for it, so he explained. 

'Ma'am, you are on the other side. You look at health as a means to make life beautiful, businesses don't.' Unfortunately, the discussion can't end here, as it did in our case. For this leads to a complete destruction - 2020 to 2022, we have had an illustration. 

2022, also brought home the fact that I have lived for about half a century. I want to be hopelessly-hopeful for the next quarter. For I believe that the generations after me, the young people, look at the world with a new perspective, be it a candor about the organizational learnings they have, or a clarity about life and the world around them. 

When they are forced to reflect, they will think the right things! Looking forward 2023 !

At the crossroads of destruction and creation........

Nord Stream are subsea pipelines, which run under the Baltic Sea, to export gas from Russia to Europe. The twin pipelines can export 110 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to Europe at least for 50 years. The length of the pipelines is 1224 kms. The second pipeline of the two was completed in 2021. 

Nord Stream is a symbol of human endeavor. The entire progress in the modern world has been a result of relentless efforts by billions of people, for years, to create a safe, happy, and comfortable life for a human being. 

Recently, there have been blasts in the pipeline. Experts say that they were planned and well-orchestrated. It was speculated that UK was involved in the blasts, to refrain France and Germany to get an uninterrupted access to gas from Russia, owing to political concerns. There have been many theories, about who orchestrated the blasts, and which country stood benefitted by them. The leaks in the pipeline did bring up a scenario of a chilly winter in Europe. 

It's not important who caused the damage. 

What is important is the fact that a human destroyed what has been created by massive human endeavor. Nord Stream sabotage is a point at which the world stands at the crossroads - of massive destruction or unprecedented creation. 

Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Heavy Engineering, Sustainable Energy, Internet of things and a lot more, the technologies of future bring about a promise of making life beautiful, bountiful, and comfortable on a sustainable basis, like it has never been in history. In the next thirty years, there is a promise that life would change, no one in the world would be sad, hungry, or impoverished. 

The other path is one of war, massive destruction, and death. 

Unfortunately, those who are in a position of power, those who are responsible for making rational, wise choices, have become lunatic. 

One nation which has attained a position of power, will go to any extent to maintain the same. If that means war, massive destruction or death, there is unscrupulous indifference to it. Some of the most powerful leaders of the world have absolute power. Some nations in the world think that they can retain a position of power forever. 

Life is transient, 70-80 years. When life itself is transient, it is impossible to keep an entity forever in the position of power. 

What humans have created; the humans can destroy. At micro or macro level, the lunatics, holding the position of power, in today's world, are unfortunately, very strongly driven towards destroying - pipeline, buildings, organizations, entities and nations. 

Nord Stream blasts are symbolic of a great and wide-spread fear of massive destruction, that has forced me to write this post. 

There are so many who have this fear today. All of them need to voice their opinion. 

A global voice against war and destruction. A global voice for creation !

The world is at crossroads. 

The economy of War...

 Today, I stumbled upon a rather interesting report - Firearm and Ammunition Industry, Economic Impact report 2022, for United States. The report states, 'America’s firearm and ammunition industry is a critical component of our nation’s security, public safety, and economic wellbeing'.' Somehow, I was stuck with these words, the use of nation's security, public safety and economic wellbeing in the same sentence. The report further states, 'the economic growth of America’s firearm and ammunition industry experienced in recent years has been nothing short of remarkable and has been driven by an unprecedented number of Americans choosing to exercise their fundamental right to keep and bear arms. This includes an estimated 5.4 million new gun owners in 2021.' 

There has been an ongoing protest in the US on gun rights, for years. We keep reading about several incidents of gun shootings in schools, shopping malls and other public places. The report discusses at length, how 'manufacturers of firearms, ammunition, and supplies, along with the companies that sell and distribute these products, provide well-paying jobs in America and pay significant amounts in tax to the state and federal governments, the tax proceeds being used in wildlife conservation.' Protests against gun rights are irrelevant, thus for an economic reason. 'Sporting' firearms is what the report produces economic numbers for. In 2021 the firearm and ammunition industry was responsible for as much as $70.52 billion in total economic activity in the US. 

The global military expenditure in 2019 was around 1.97 trillion $. Financial value of the global arms trade for 2019 was at least $118 billion, however the true figure is likely to be higher, because the governments do not give the exact data. United States has a major share in this market at 39%, followed by Russia (19%), France(11%), China (4.6%) and Germany (4.5%). The other major exporters in the world are UK, South Korea, Spain, Israel, Holland, Sweden, Canada, Turkey, Italy and Ukraine. It is said to be a highly competitive market. The market segment includes Small Arms, Rifles, Machine Guns, Portable Explosives, and other weapon types; explosives, tanks, antitank weapons, fighter aircrafts, missiles, defense systems etc. Fastest growing market in this space is Asia Pacific and the largest market is US. The companies that dominate the market are  - BAE Systems plc, General Dynamics Corporation, Kalashnikov Concern JSC (Rostec State Corporation), MBDA and Raytheon Technologies Corporation. 

The size of global food and grocery retail market was 11.7 trillion $ in 2019 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.0%. At of end-2020, the total global pharmaceutical market was valued at about 1.27 trillion U.S. dollars, the global automotive manufacturing market was sized at about 2.7 trillion U.S. dollars, the size of the global dairy market was US$ 827.4 billion in 2020 and the global real estate market size was valued at $6.8 trillion in 2018. The GDP of the top six economies in the world in 2021 was  - United States: $20.89 trillion, China: $14.72 trillion, Japan: $5.06 trillion, Germany: $3.85 trillion, United Kingdom: $2.67 trillion, India: $2.66 trillion.

Most of the commodities in the world are produced because they are consumed. If the development of civilization happens to an extent that arms and ammunition is kept in showcases or warehouses, for display, not for use, CAGR figures for this market will be 0. Till then, the wars will be responsible for the economic wellbeing of certain nations. Some parts of the world stuck in war, will increase the defense expenditures of the rest of the world, for the fear of a possible war in their region. Fear invokes self-defense. 

The war brings destruction in one part of the world, but is supposed to bring economic well being in the other parts of the world. There is a reasoning to wars.

The problem with destructive forces is  - they plan of small scale destruction for potential gains, consoling themselves that the amount of gains would be bigger than the extent of destruction planned, but when the destruction actually happens, the magnitude of destruction is in nobody's control. 

I might write another blogpost on - 'which economies benefitted the most from COVID19'. BUT, I have to endeavor to get together, my broken spirit, and that sense of extreme hollowness in the heart, resulting from what I have written so far.