Why is the migrant labour being sent back now?

When it was time to bring the migrant labour back, they are being sent back to their villages. The government has arranged for buses and trains to send them back safely to their villages. One political voice is debating that the expenditure of their journey should be borne by the state, while the other voice is expecting the people to acknowledge their efforts of getting the labour back to their homes and to appreciate their welfare measures. Not long ago, we were talking about cluster containment strategy to combat the corona virus pandemic.

The official government guideline issued by the ministry talks about it in detail. A Containment Plan was released by the Government of India, which laid out a ‘cluster containment strategy’ to contain the disease with in a defined geographic area by early detection, breaking the chain of transmission and thus preventing its spread to new areas. This would include geographic quarantine, social distancing measures, enhanced active surveillance, testing all suspected cases, isolation of cases, home quarantine of contacts, and social mobilization to follow preventive public health measures. As a result of this strategy a nation-wide lockdown was enforced for 40 days. It brought successful results as largely the disease spread was limited to 13 urban clusters in the country. We had received this information just three days ago.

A 40 day lockdown period, had its impact on the economic activity. Certain sectors like Travel and Tourism, Aviation, Retail and MSMEs were majorly hit. It was estimated by many agencies and economists in the country that the economic growth rate in the country could be 1.5 % in the current fiscal year. It was also estimated that there could be three scenarios of the productivity loss for the country. 

In the first scenario, of the disease spread is contained by May end, the epidemic curve was expected to turn, which would mean a lockdown of about 2 months, or a productivity loss of one quarter. The economy was expected to revive, however, very fast in the third quarter, when the production activity was to be resumed. The suppressed demand was expected to revive and bring back buying in the markets. There is a phenomenon of revenge buying, explained in economics, where, if the consumers do not get an opportunity to buy for some time, they flock to markets to do revenge buying, when they get an opportunity. A short term lockdown period was not expected to hit the economy much, as productive activity was to be resumed in the third quarter and the economy was expected to generate a new investment demand in the fourth quarter. Government spending will replace domestic consumption spending, and the economy could be soon put to track, was the theoretical premise on which it was based. 

The critical link here was the success of cluster containment strategy. A tragedy of sorts happened in between. Migratory Labour, that amounts to about 300 million people in the country, wanted to return back to their homes, and they decided to make that journey on foot. Future uncertainty, fear of starvation, lack of daily employment and a fear of contracting the disease, were some of the factors that triggered that behaviour. It was fair for the government at the beginning of April to provide transportation to these migratory workers, so that they could reach their homes. Some facilitation was done but still there were many who made that journey on foot. There was lack of coordination between the states, when the effort was made. The Prime minister and many Chief ministers appealed to the migratory labour to stay back where they were, and promised to take care of them. Many philanthropists came forward to help, food was distributed to daily wage earners, camps were organised and ration, money etc. were transferred.

The efforts were segregated though. There was a lack of a systematic approach. It was difficult to trace who was staying where, those who needed help and those who did not. There were some people who were left out and they starved. There is a lack of a state sponsored social security net in the country, so identification of vulnerable people in a given situation is difficult. The poor, the weak and the old cannot be easily identified in a country of 1.3 billion people. There are BPL card, MNREGA card, BOTC card, Jan Dhan accounts to track those who are in need, but there are many who are still left out. The mechanism of identifying beneficiaries under various schemes is segregated, and thus it is difficult to create one system around relief measures, which covers all. We have a unique identification number - Aadhar Card, but it is not linked to other schemes. Not everyone has Aadhar too. There has always been problem with migratory workforce regarding Aadhar. 

At the end of 40 days of lockdown, there is a clarion call made for economic revival. The productivity loss has been realised in a month. There is a pressure from the industrial lobby to allow them to resume production. The retail sector wants the transportation to be resumed to get the benefit of new demand. The government does an exercise to identify clusters where the viral spread is high and the entire country is classified in red, orange and green zones. The states prepared their exit strategies. The common man assumed that the government will take rational decisions to keep them safe, and at the same time gradually bring back activity. 

4th May was the date decided to lift the lockdown partially in the country. Same time, the state governments were making efforts to arrange transport for the migratory labour, to send them back to their villages. There are two implications of such efforts. One - the labourers are being transported at a time when they are required in the production activity. In a country that focuses on labour intensive processes, labour is the most important factor of production. The entire exercise of lifting of lockdown would be futile, if there is no labour to restart the production activity. Two - It has been statistically established from the data being received from all parts of the world that the ratio of asymptomatic carriers of virus to symptomatic carriers of virus is 70:30. The risk of developing new clusters in the villages is high, when we decide to support the reverse migration of labourers to villages, after 40 days of lockdown. 

The containment plan of Corona Virus spread may go for a toss if the migratory labour takes the virus to every nook and corner of the country. Ministry of Heath and Family welfare, and research agencies like ICMR, should have made an estimate of potential risk involved in state supported reverse migration, from identified clusters to remote areas after 40 days of lockdown. If this kind of effort was to be made for the welfare of the labour, it was to be done in the early days of lockdown. This was the time to bring back the labour, from their villages after getting them duly tested. To and fro movement to labour in the country, when the epidemic curve doesn't seem to flatten, might be responsible for many new clusters created in the country. 

Last two days have seen a large surge in the Covid 19 positively reported cases, the highest so far, since lockdown. States like Chhattisgarh, which were not having any case for a large part of lockdown have reported cases. North-eastern states are also reporting cases. All those countries in the world, who had not had a complete lockdown in the initial stages of virus spread, saw a huge surge in the cases, be it Italy, Spain, UK, US or very recently Brazil. The benefits of 40 day lockdown might be lost, if exit strategy is not planned well in India. There might be a dreaded situation of overwhelming of hospitals, in the country. India doesn't have enough capacity of generating a proper health system response to a pandemic is well known. We had chosen a preventive strategy, with a purpose. 

Reverse migration of labour after 40 days of lockdown will defeat the purpose. States are building up screening, testing and quarantining protocols. Rajasthan has prepared a database of migrant workers district wise, to identify outbound workers and where they need to be transported. Who is this effort helping? The labour? They were helped better by resuming their employment, while preventing them from the infection. It will not help the economy either. Coordinated efforts of health systems, workplaces, people and the government were required. An imminent thinking and action needs to be taken, otherwise the situation may turn explosive.